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Disruptive Role of Vertical Land Motion in Future Assessments of Climate Change-Driven Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Hazards in the Chesapeake Bay

Version 2 2022-10-19, 14:15
Version 1 2022-07-06, 15:50
posted on 2022-10-19, 14:15 authored by Sonam Futi SherpaSonam Futi Sherpa, Manoochehr ShirzaeiManoochehr Shirzaei, Chandrakanta Ojha

Inundation projections from Sea Level Rise (SLR), Vertical Land Motion (VLM), and storm surge for hurricane Isabel at climate scenarios namely Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1-1.9, 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 at three-time scales (2030-2050-2100) at medium confidence, median values, likely ranges upper and lower (for three selected SSPs: see below) are provided. Additionally, the inundated area from SLR, Subsidence at SSP 1-2.6 and 5-8.5 for likely ranges (upper and lower) at low confidence scenarios are provided. 

Sentinel-1 and ALOS data from 2007-2020 are processed used WabInSAR algorithm. We use future SLR scenarios from the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) following SSPs adopted by the IPCC for projection periods of 2030, 2050 till 2100, relative to a baseline of 1995-2014 with medium confidence and low confidence. 

Anyone wishing to use this dataset should cite Sherpa et al. 2022) and contact Sonam Futi Sherpa at for any questions with details of their work, so that we may offer guidance in regards to the best usage of our produced inundation scenarios dataset. 


National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 80NSSC170567

US Geological Survey (USGS)

National Science Foundation (NSF) 1735139

Geological Society of America (GSA)



University Libraries, Virginia Tech


Blacksburg, VA, USA

Corresponding Author Name

Sonam Futi Sherpa

Corresponding Author E-mail Address

Files/Folders in Dataset and Description

There are 23 compressed files as listed below. SUB_INUN represents inundation from subsidence only, SLR_inundation represents inundation from only sea-level rise, SLR_SUB indicates inundation from both sea-level rise and subsidence, SLR_SUB_StormSurge represents inundation from sea level rise, subsidence and storm surge including either hurricane Isabel. “medium” represents medium confidence, “low” represents low confidence, “median” is 50th percentile, “upperbound” is 83th percentile, “lowerbound” is 17th percentile and “ssp” is shared socioeconomic pathways. 1. SUB_INUN 2. SLR _inundation_medium_median_ssp119 3. SLR _inundation_medium_median_ssp370 4. SLR _inundation_medium_median_ssp585 5. SLR_StormSurge_Isabel_inundation_medium_median_ssp585 6. SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_median_ssp119 7. SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_median_ssp126 8. SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_median_ssp245 9. SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_median_ssp370 10. SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_median_ssp585 11. SLR_SUB_StormSurge_Isabel_inundation_medium_median_ssp585 12. SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_lowerbound_ssp119 13. SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_lowerbound_ssp370 14. SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_lowerbound_ssp585 15. SLR_SUB_StormSurge_Isabel_inundation_lowerbound_median_ssp585 16. SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_upperbound_ssp119 17. SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_upperbound_ssp370 18. SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_upperbound_ssp585 19. SLR_SUB_StormSurge_Isabel_inundation_upperbound_median_ssp585 20. SLR_SUB_inundation_low_lowerbound_ssp126 21. SLR_SUB_inundation_low_lowerbound_ssp585 22. SLR_SUB_inundation_low_upperbound_ssp126 23. SLR_SUB_inundation_low_upperbound_ssp585 Each folder consists of three CSV files for three time periods 2030,2050, 2100 and respective png images and Matlab file to plot the dataset. For example, in a folder "SLR_SUB_inundation_medium_median_ssp119", it consists of following: • SLR_SUB_Inundation_Map_SSP119_2030.csv (for e.g.) column #1: longitude(deg), column #2: Latitude(deg) : Locations of the inundation area for 2030 in SSP 119 while considering both sea level rise (SLR) and Subsidence (SUB). • CB_inundation_plot.m: MATLAB script to plot the dataset • SLR_SUB_Inundation_Map_SSP119_2030.png This is available for all SSPs at medium confidence, median values and likely ranges for selected SSPs at low confidence (see above). Cite this as: Sherpa, S. F., Shirzaei, M., & Ojha, C. (2022, Under review). Disruptive Role of Vertical Land Motion in Future Assessments of Climate Change-Driven Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Hazards in the Chesapeake Bay. Also see citations below for details. 1. Blackwell, E., Shirzaei, M., Ojha, C., & Werth, S. (2020). Tracking California’s sinking coast from space: Implications for relative sea-level rise. Science Advances. 2. Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., et al. (2021). Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [MassonDelmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press. 3. Garner, G. G., Hermans, T., Kopp, R. E., Slangen, A. B. A., Edwards, T. L., Levermann, S., et al. (2021). IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Rise Projections. Version 20210809. PO. DAAC, CA, USA. 4. Garner, G. G., Kopp, R. E., Hermans, T., Slangen, A. B. A., Koubbe, M., Turilli, M., et al. (In prep). Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS). Geoscientific Model Development. 5. Sherpa, S. F., Shirzaei, M., & Ojha, C. (2022, April 26). Disruptive Role of Vertical Land Motion in Future Assessments of Climate Change-Driven Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Hazards in the Chesapeake Bay. Earth and Space Science Open Archive. 6. Shirzaei, M. (2013). A Wavelet-Based Multitemporal DInSAR Algorithm for Monitoring Ground Surface Motion. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 10(3), 456-460. 7. Shirzaei, M., & Bürgmann, R. (2012). Topography correlated atmospheric delay correction in radar interferometry using wavelet transforms. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(1). 8. Shirzaei, M., Bürgmann, R., & Fielding, E. J. (2017). Applicability of Sentinel-1 Terrain Observation by Progressive Scans multitemporal interferometry for monitoring slow ground motions in the San Francisco Bay Area. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(6), 2733-2742. 9. Shirzaei, M., & Bürgmann, R. (2018). Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area. Science Advances, 4(3), eaap9234. 10. Miller, M. M., & Shirzaei, M. (2021). Assessment of future flood hazards for southeastern Texas: Synthesizing subsidence, sea-level rise, and storm surge scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(8), e2021GL092544.